442,931 real production orders across W15–W27·SFCC prod·standard basis (excludes auto-renew, net fulfilled · Veloura demand)·every number computed by the validated engine, never written by the model·
W27 brief.
Jun 28 – Jul 4, 2026·7 insights ready for discussion·3 flagged need attention·compared to W26
This week at a glance
vs W26 · vs Finance plan
RevenuePlan-watch
$1.13M
vs prior wk
▼-4.0%
vs plan
—
Orders
17,406
vs prior wk
▲+3.3%
Avg order
$64.77
vs prior wk
▼-7.0%
Mobile revenue
$190K
vs prior wk
▲+18.3%
Veloura-brand share
49.6%
vs prior wk
▲+0.8%
Metric
This week
Source
Margin $
$502K
Veloura margin feed
Margin rate
45.3%
Veloura margin feed
Site CVR
2.52%
SFCC orders ÷ GA4 sessions
Sessions
709,656
GA4
PDP add-to-cart
18.6%
GA4
Bounce rate
25%
GA4
Margin $ and rate light up when Veloura sends the margin feed · CVR / Sessions / Add-to-cart / Bounce are GA4 (their QM→GA4 migration target).
What needs attention
7 ranked · σ-flagged by materiality + magnitude
Verdict · 7-week structural state
Plan attainment — Elevated concern, structural state: COOLING
⚡ New this week — structural state moved COMPOUNDING → COOLING · trend turned deteriorating.
86%
W15
84%
W16
80%
W17
89%
W18
84%
W19
75%
W20
75%
W21
75%
W22
104%
W23
69%
W24
78%
W25
75%
W26
11 of 12 weeks under plan · latest 74.6% · avg 81.1% · trend -13.0% (3-wk vs 3-wk).
💡The $47K demand shortfall is almost entirely a basket problem — AOV dropped from $50 to $47 a $84K drag that a small conversion lift ($47K tailwind) only partially offset.
•Basket (AOV) fell $50 to $47 costing ~$84K — 179% of the total revenue miss
•Conversion rate nudged up (2.35% to 2.45%), recovering ~$47K and masking the full AOV damage
•Traffic was a minor headwind — sessions dipped ~6K, contributing roughly $10K of the shortfall
❓Is there a mix shift, markdown, or bundle change this period that would explain why customers are spending $5 less per order on average?
plan_recalibrationtraffic
cooling
Elevated concern
−$3.38M
Cumulative gap, 12 wks
Needs a decision
01
trafficpromoHigh priority
Mon W27 came in -42.5% vs its 4-week Mon baseline
💡The $96K demand drop was driven 70% by a conversion rate collapse from 2.5% to 1.7%, not a traffic or basket problem — but why conversion fell that sharply on this Monday is not in the data and may simply be normal Monday volatility at Veloura.
•Conversion rate fell 2.5% to 1.7%, costing roughly $68K of the $96K total drop
•Top brands LUMÉ, VELOURA PRO, and LUMÉ GLOW together account for $39K of the loss across 157 brands — broad-based, no single culprit
•Cause of the conversion drop is an honest gap — brand mix and traffic vs basket were checked and neither explains it
❓Was anything live on this Monday — a site change, a promo expiry, or a checkout update — that could explain a conversion rate cut nearly in half?
−$96K
Net miss vs 4-week Mon baseline
02
upsideHigh priority
Mobile app share 16.8% — 5.8pt above the 11% plan target
💡App dollar sales drove nearly all of the 3.2pt week-over-week share jump — app revenue added $29K and contributed 2.6 of the 3.2pts, putting mobile 5.8pts above the 11% plan — but why app demand surged is not in this data.
•App revenue grew $29K WoW, accounting for 2.6 of the 3.2pt share gain
•A smaller 0.6pt lift came from overall total demand mix shifting favorably
•Root cause of the app demand spike is not captured — worth a human gut-check
❓Was there a push notification, app-exclusive offer, or featured placement live this week that could explain the app demand spike?
+$66K
Net win vs 11% plan target
03
upsideMedium priority
LUMÉ GLOW grew $35,953 vs W26 (+138.2%)
💡LUMÉ GLOW's $35,953 revenue jump is a margin trap: contribution actually fell roughly $9,381 because margin rate collapsed from 28% to -3%, meaning the volume surge was sold at a loss.
•Margin rate dropped 31.5 points, flipping contribution from +$7,336 to -$2,045
•Growth spread across 5 SKUs, led by Rose Quartz (+$5,387), Golden Hour (+$4,146), and Ocean Pearl (+$3,651)
❓Was a promotion or pricing change intentionally run on LUMÉ GLOW this week, and if so, was it expected to push margin negative?
+$36K
Net win vs W26
04
promosubsMedium priority
DERMA LUXE declined $27,990 vs W26 (-48.4%)
💡The $27,990 revenue drop in Derma Luxe was low-quality volume walking out the door — margin rate nearly doubled from 11% to 25%, so contribution actually rose $1,077 meaning the business is healthier this week than last despite the headline loss.
•Gold Series Retinol Cream (Night Formula) led the decline at -$5,339 part of a broad drop across 5 SKUs.
•Gold Series Retinol Cream (Day and Eye variants) added another -$4,801 combined.
•Last week's 11% margin suggests a deep promotion or clearance event that has since ended — worth confirming.
❓Was there a promotion or markdown on Derma Luxe last week that has now expired, explaining both the volume drop and the margin recovery?
💡Fragrance margin collapsed 7.5 points to 14.3%, costing ~$14,573 on $194,310 of demand this week — and because revenue held or grew, this is purely a rate or markdown problem, not a volume one; the cause is not in the data and needs a human gut-check.
•Fragrance alone accounts for ~$14,573 of the ~$18,687 total contribution lost across 4 divisions
•Natural & Organic, Hair Care, and Body Care each eroding further — pattern is broad
•Promo calendar was checked and no clear explanation was found — markdown, input-cost shift, or SKU mix drift are unconfirmed possibilities
❓Can you confirm whether a markdown, a cost increase, or a mix shift toward lower-margin Fragrance SKUs was intentional this week?
−$19K
Net miss contribution lost vs W26 rate
06
assortmentpromoMedium priority
Color Cosmetics sub-cats — biggest move: Lip Makeup -15.3% (-$15,949) vs W26
💡Lip Makeup dropped $15,949 versus W26 almost entirely because 328 fewer orders were placed — the SKU mix and promo calendar were both checked and neither explains it, pointing to broad organic category softness that needs a human gut-check.
•Order volume drove 96% of the drop: 2,241 orders down to 1,913, worth roughly $15,235
•Decline spread across at least 5 SKUs — top three (Velvet Matte Lipstick Rouge, Velvet Matte Lipstick Coral, GlowMist Setting Spray) account for only $3,889 of the $15,949 move
•SKU mix and promo calendar were checked — no single cause found in available data
❓Did anything change in W26 that could have inflated that baseline — a site feature, a bundle deal, or an email drop — that would make this week's volume the more normal one?
−$16K
Net miss vs W26
Daily pacing
Plan vs Actual · W27
Daily plan vs actual — W27
─── plan ─── actual
Trend
Last 13 weeks — Actual vs Plan
What moved · brands
by sales WoW% · vs W26
Grew
sales WoW%
▸LUMÉ GLOW+$35,953+138.2%
▸LUMÉ+$19,465+85%
▸VELOURA MARINE+$6,709+33.6%
▸KIYO SKIN+$6,543+107.7%
▸VELOURA RADIANCE+$6,343+7.2%
▸BOTANIKA+$6,307+39.2%
Declined
sales WoW%
▸DERMA LUXE-$27,990-48.4%
▸VELOURA PRO-$22,295-19.4%
▸SILKEN-$14,684-24.9%
▸PURE PETAL-$12,575-58.8%
▸GLOSSA-$12,548-31.3%
▸NOIR ATELIER-$10,423-41.9%
Brand▾
Sales TW▼
Sales PW▾
WoW%▾
Margin% TW▾
Margin% PW▾
Sales LY▾
YoY%▾
$94,623
$88,279
+7%
74.4%
74.1%
$121,409
−22%
Top 25 brands by this-week sales · vs W26. Margin% (this wk & prior), Sales LY & YoY are Veloura's History-feed figures (Veloura.com basis). Smaller brands not in the feed show —.
Where revenue came from · Category
demand $ · this week
Division▾
Sales TW▼
Sales PW▾
WoW%▾
Sales LY▾
YoY%▾
Margin $▾
Margin rate▾
Skincare
$271,593
$359,624
−25%
$321,172
−16%
$88,573
32.7%
Sales by division · vs W26. Sales LY, YoY & Margin are Veloura's own History-feed figures (Veloura.com basis; the feed runs a few % under SFCC Sales TW). Sub-categories (Serums, Lip Makeup, Hyaluronic Acid) aren't in the feed's division grain, so their feed columns stay blank.
1P vs 3P · by division
Veloura-owned vs third-party · reconciles to category
Division▾
1P sales▾
3P sales▾
1P share▾
Total▼
WoW%▾
Margin $▾
YoY%▾
Skincare
$127,727
$143,866
47%
$271,593
−25%
$88,573
−16%
1P (Veloura-owned) vs 3P sales by division · vs W26. Reconciles to the category table. Margin $ & YoY are Veloura's History-feed figures for the whole division (not split 1P/3P); sub-categories stay blank.
Basket Mix
what sells together · categories & product cross-sell
34% of Brush Kits baskets also buy Moisturizers — a 2.38× pairing, and the clearest bundle to offer. Read the Vitamin C Serums + Mineral Makeup pairing with care: it looks 3.95× in the raw data, but the buy-one-get-one is doing about 1.8× of that.
How to read lift: how much more often two categories land in the same basket than random chance — 2.4× = 2.4× more than if they were unrelated · 1× = no link · under 1× = they rarely share a basket. Attach = of baskets with the first category, the share that also buy the second; lift then adjusts that for how common the second category is on its own.
Organic affinities real behavior
Pairing
Lift
Attach
Baskets
Brush Kits + Moisturizers
2.38×
34.5% of Brush Kits
985
Lip Balms + Face Masks
2.21×
16.4% of Face Masks
572
Brush Kits + Exfoliants / Peels
1.94×
18.1% of Brush Kits
517
Sunscreen + Exfoliants / Peels
1.27×
11.9% of Sunscreen
487
Promo-amplified read with care
Organic = the promo-free lift (trust this one). With BOGO = raw lift, but a buy-one-get-one forces both items into the basket, inflating it. Promo lift = how much the deal amplifies the pairing (With BOGO ÷ Organic).
Pairing
Organic
With BOGO
Promo lift
Vitamin C Serums + Mineral Makeup
2.19×
3.95×
1.8×
Vitamin C Serums + K-Beauty
0.73×
1.26×
1.73×
Botanical Oils + Vitamin C Serums
1.01×
1.74×
1.72×
Mineral Makeup + K-Beauty
0.72×
1.22×
1.69×
Collagen Boosters + Vitamin C Serums
0.73×
1.2×
1.64×
Retinol + Hyaluronic Acid
0.78×
1.25×
1.6×
Botanical Oils + Mineral Makeup
1.22×
1.94×
1.59×
Botanical Oils + K-Beauty
0.81×
1.27×
1.56×
Honesty: 95.8% of lines categorized · 25.1% are buy-one-get-one (stripped for the organic view, so a promo can't fake a pairing). Gross checkout baskets, every placed order.
Product cross-sellprototype
For the top anchor products, the genuine cross-category complements most often bought with them — by lift, attach rate and the cross-sell's margin. Same-subcategory pairings (bar → bar), flavour/size variants, memberships & BOGO lines are removed.
Vitamin C Glow Serum - 30 mL (90 Day) · VELOURA RADIANCE · 4,265 baskets
Rosehip Facial Oil 100mL · VELOURA HYDRA
2.76×
1.7%
70.1%
Rosehip Facial Oil Mini · VELOURA HYDRA
1.96×
0.8%
71.4%
Collagen Peptide Serum · VELOURA PRO
1.4×
1%
44.1%
How to read:Lift = how much more often the cross-sell lands in the anchor's basket than chance (popularity-controlled — 3× means 3× over baseline). Attach = share of the anchor's baskets that include it. Margin shown where the COGS feed covers the SKU. The play: surface the high-lift, high-margin item on the anchor's PDP / in cart.
Products
top sellers this week · collapsed
Product▾
Brand▾
Sales TW▼
Sales PW▾
WoW%▾
Orders▾
Margin $▾
PDP / ATC / CVR▾ⓘ
Radiance Renewal Cream - 50 mL (60 Day)
—
$16,903
$15,088
+12%
315
$13,827
2,161 / 742 / 21.5%
Top 25 products by this-week sales · vs W26. Margin $ is est (all-channel YTD rate × this-week .com sales); PDP / ATC / CVR are GA4 item views / add-to-cart / conversion (Veloura's sheet uses QM — won't tie to the decimal). Newer SKUs without a margin row show —.
Traffic & channels
GA4 · sessions · CVR · ROAS — your QM→GA4 migration, here early
Channel mix — sessions, conversion & ROAS
2026-06-28 → 2026-07-04 · GA4 property 229136907
GA4 · not QM
Sessions -0.8% vs W26, blended ROAS 5.8× → 6.1× on −$21K ad spend — efficiency improving.
Sessions
709,656
Sessions YoY
−29.7%
Site CVR · orders ÷ sessions
2.52%
Blended ROAS · Google
6.1×
Sessions & ROAS — last 4 weeks
Session mix · this week
710K
sessions
Direct22.9%
Organic Search13.1%
Paid Search13.1%
Paid Shopping10.7%
Cross-network9.5%
Display9.2%
Paid Social6.8%
Other14.7%
Channel▾
Sessions▼
WoW▾
GA4 Revenue▾
CVR▾
Clean CVR▾
ROAS · LC▾ⓘ
Direct
162,197
+4,840
$212,996
1.97%
—
—
Organic Search
93,168
+3,037
$84,849
1.40%
—
—
Paid Search
92,867
+6,263
$241,936
3.65%
—
5.1×
Paid Shopping
76,287
+4,324
$51,293
1.24%
—
1.3×
Cross-network
67,690
−25,705
$43,213
1.06%
—
0.8×
Display
65,141
+518
$2,303
0.07%
—
—
Paid Social
48,268
+1,887
$2,655
0.10%
—
—
Email
44,950
−1,354
$130,880
4.19%
—
—
Unassigned
20,493
+5,325
$17,245
1.28%
—
—
Affiliates
11,884
−4,051
$82,825
10.59%
—
—
Referral
8,916
−251
$19,735
4.39%
—
—
Paid Other
6,146
−578
$14,179
3.08%
—
—
SMS
4,192
+8
$7,741
2.73%
—
—
Organic Shopping
2,784
+639
$1,820
1.34%
—
—
Organic Social
2,310
−1,208
$642
0.53%
—
—
AI Assistant
1,229
−152
$1,259
1.52%
—
—
Audio
489
+238
$0
0.00%
—
—
Organic Video
453
+352
$94
0.32%
0.95%
—
Paid Video
188
−150
$29
0.38%
—
0.0×
Mobile Push Notifications
6
+2
$0
0.00%
—
—
How we read these numbers — GA4 vs site CVR · Clean CVR · ROAS basis
Per-channel CVR uses GA4’s own transactions — GA4 records 77.3% of your SFCC orders (consent / ad-block / cross-device loss), so channel CVRs read below the SFCC-based site CVR above. Clean CVR strips the ghost sessions (flagged in the Traffic-quality card) from each channel’s denominator — only the channels a crawler hit change. ROAS · LC = last-click (GA4 session-attributed revenue ÷ Google ad cost; Google-cost channels only). Sessions YoY = the same EDT week a year ago (52-week shift); GA4 history reaches Jan 2023. We show the property TOTAL only — per-channel YoY is distorted by Veloura's QM→GA4 channel re-tagging (channel definitions changed between years), so only the total is apples-to-apples. GA4-sourced — Veloura's current weekly sheet uses Quantum Metric for sessions/CVR/channel; they're migrating QM→GA4. These figures are the migration target and won't tie to the QM sheet to the decimal. The orders numerator in CVR is SFCC (identical to Veloura's).
Traffic quality — flagged sessions
2026-06-28 → 2026-07-04 · non-human pattern · GA4
GA4 · not QM
Total sessions
709,656
all GA4 sessions
−
Flagged · non-humani
5,433
0.8% · 3 pages
Ghost-traffic signature. A landing page is flagged when it clears all three at once, on ≥300 sessions:
≤2% bounce~every session counts “engaged” — a crawler that follows every link trips GA4’s ≥2-pageviews rule.
≤5s engageyet no real dwell time on the page.
≤0.5% CVRand effectively no orders.
Humans don’t combine “engaged every visit” with ~0s and ~0 orders — bots do. We flag, never delete; clean sessions are a conservative floor.
=
Clean sessions
704,223
human-pattern
Site CVR on clean traffic 2.54% — vs 2.52% on raw sessions (+0.02pt). Ghost traffic inflates your denominator, so your true on-site conversion runs higher than the headline.
Flagged page
Sessions
Bounce
Engage
CVR
/lip-makeup/512366.html
4,687
0.1%
4s
0.05%
/gwp/115160.html
464
0.0%
0s
0.00%
/disco-offline/884604.html
282
0.0%
4s
0.00%
96.5% of sessions scanned · we flag, never remove (clean = conservative floor). Hover Flagged for the exact rule, or any row for why it tripped.
Site behavior & conversion funnel
2026-06-28 → 2026-07-04 · GA4
GA4 · not QM
Engagement rate
74.6%
Bounce · GA4 def
25.4%
Avg engagement
51s
PDP add-to-cart rate
18.6%
Conversion funnel
Item views
467,867
Add to cart
87,20718.6% of views
Checkout
26,06629.9% of ATC
Purchase
13,81953% of checkout
GA4-sourced. Bounce = GA4 engagement-based (1 − engagement rate), a different definition from Veloura's QM bounce — won't tie to their sheet. ATC rate = add-to-carts ÷ item views.
Top landing pages — WoW
2026-06-28 → 2026-07-04 · where sessions started · GA4
GA4 · not QM
Landing page▾
Sessions▼
Sess WoW%▾
Revenue▾
Rev WoW%▾
CVR▾
Bounce▾
Engage▾
/
148,563
−0%
$463,367
+1%
4.4%
26%
1m 31s
/department
49,388
+10%
$32,145
+60%
0.9%
49%
17s
(not set)
35,520
+5%
$39,035
+27%
1.5%
73%
48s
/brands/velvet-ritual
28,583
+35%
$227
−52%
0.0%
72%
4s
/new-in.html
15,643
−2%
$629
−63%
0.1%
73%
6s
/u/login
14,820
+59%
$16,648
+44%
1.6%
27%
51s
/track
12,917
−20%
$1,867
+6%
0.3%
42%
15s
/cart
11,293
−4%
$75,262
−14%
9.8%
36%
1m 11s
/search
10,968
−3%
$15,080
+11%
2.0%
3%
56s
/help/your-order.html
5,466
+54%
$2,195
+4%
0.7%
32%
42s
/vip-access.html
5,445
—
$25,879
—
13.6%
28%
1m 12s
/lip-makeup/512366.html
4,699
+50%
$63
—
0.1%
0%
4s
/skincare-sets
4,195
−7%
$6,314
−6%
2.0%
18%
1m 18s
/skincare
4,028
−17%
$3,319
−60%
1.2%
43%
47s
/moisturizers/769364.html
3,591
−2%
$2,783
+11%
1.7%
0%
49s
GA4 landing pages (clean paths). Bounce = GA4 engagement-based (1 − engagement rate), not classic single-page bounce — won't match QM. AET = avg engagement time per session.
GA4 vs Quantum Metric — reconciled to Veloura’s sheet
their Summary tab = QM · their Channel-Mix tab = GA4 · we match their GA4
GA4 = their GA4
Our GA4 sessions
709,656
= their GA4 (+0.17%)
QM sessions · their Summary
588,047
GA4 +20.7% vs QM
GA4 clean · −ghosts
704,223
+19.8% vs QM
Metric
Our GA4
Veloura
Reads as
GA4 revenue
$915,693
$915,925 GA4
to the cent
Site CVR
2.52% · clean 2.54%
2.78% QM
clean ≈ QM
PDP add-to-cart
18.6%
16.1% QM
match
Bounce
25.4% eng.
57.0% classic
diff. def
Veloura's Summary tab = Quantum Metric; their Channel-Mix tab = GA4. Our GA4 matches THEIR GA4 (sessions + revenue); the GA4↔QM gap is ~63% explained by the ghost traffic we flag (QM filters bots GA4 counts).
Promotions
active this week · adoption and AOV lift
Promotion▾
Code▾
Uses▾
Adoption▾ⓘ
Base AOV▾ⓘ
Promo AOV▾ⓘ
AOV lift▾ⓘ
VIP Buy One, Get One 50% Off
VIP-Member BOGO50-84213-July26
3,758
21.6%
$84
$88
+4.9%
17,406 demand orders · $236,239 realized discount · base AOV = no-promo orders in each promo's category · AOV lift is descriptive (basket size), not a causal return
Beyond the Excel
margin · YoY · fulfilled · channel — from your Power BI exports
Vitamin C Glow Serum - 30 mL (90 Day) #311708$407K · 74.8%
All sales channels (gross) — per-SKU rates carry to Veloura.com; the Veloura.com margin is the “Margin $ / Rate” card.
442,931 real production orders · standard basis (excludes auto-renew, net fulfilled · Veloura demand) · every figure computed by the validated engineAsk Rev for any number's lineage